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RMBS analytics modeling of collateral performance is evolving from a base of simplistic actuarial rating agency methodology. The current market standard for pricing is based upon roll rate methodology.  Recent Improvements in loan database quality and accessibility have allowed for the development of robust loan level methodology driven by Home Price Index (HPI) forecasts.  NIR loan level modeling is supplemented with roll rate methodology where loan data is unavailable. The two methodologies are profiled as follows:

 Forecast Component
Roll Rate Model Input
NIR Loan Level Model Input
1)Home Price (HPI ) Environment
National Rate of Change
 CBSA Level History (433)
 CBSA Level Forecast (122)
2)Interest Rate
Libor Forward
 Loan Indices
 Libor Forward
3)Loan Portfolio Quality
Weighted Average FICO/LTV
 Pool Stratification by FICO
 55 Loan Level Fields/15 Regression Fitted
 12 Month Payment History
 Current Home Price
4)Roll Rate Methodology
Default Rate by Delinquency
 Loan Simulation Default Probability
 Probabilistic 10 Stage Roll Rates
 5 Roll Rate Calibration Options
5)Severity Assumptions
Static Severity for All Defaults
 Home Price Forecast
 Foreclosure and REO Roll Timing
 State by State Disposition Costs
 Adjustments for Servicer Quality

 

                                                                                                                                 

  

                                                                                                                                                                                                          ©2009 NIR Credit Partners L.L.C.