|
Forecast
Component
|
Roll Rate
Model Input
|
NIR Loan Level
Model Input
|
|
1)Home
Price (HPI ) Environment
|
•National
Rate of Change
|
• CBSA
Level History (433)
• CBSA
Level Forecast (122)
|
|
2)Interest
Rate
|
•Libor
Forward
|
• Loan
Indices
• Libor
Forward
|
|
3)Loan
Portfolio Quality
|
•Weighted
Average FICO/LTV
• Pool
Stratification by FICO
|
• 55
Loan Level Fields/15 Regression
Fitted
• 12
Month Payment History
• Current
Home Price
|
|
4)Roll
Rate Methodology
|
•Default
Rate by Delinquency
|
• Loan
Simulation Default Probability
• Probabilistic
10 Stage Roll Rates
• 5
Roll Rate Calibration Options
|
|
5)Severity
Assumptions
|
Static Severity for All Defaults
|
• Home
Price Forecast
• Foreclosure
and REO Roll Timing
• State
by State Disposition Costs
• Adjustments
for Servicer Quality
|